Media trends complicate Democrats’ goal to win statewide races

By Robert Koenig >>

Democrats hoping to break the Republican lock on Missouri statewide races are likely to face a daunting media landscape of news silos, “news deserts” and a decline in newspaper endorsements in the years ahead.

In November, every statewide Democratic candidate lost by a substantial margin to his or her Republican opponent – even though the Democrats were endorsed by the state’s two largest newspapers – the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and the Kansas City Star – and had the advantage of backing the abortion amendment that voters adopted.

While those results did not come as a surprise, several factors related to the media complicated the Democrats’ challenge, and are likely to continue to do so in the next statewide elections. Those factors include:

 The increasing power of digital “influencers” in politics. 

The Pew Research Center says one in five Americans got much of their news in 2024 from digital influencers. That survey focused on influencers who have more than 100,000 social media followers, including both liberal and conservative personalities. 

About half of the influencers that Pew sampled claimed to have no political orientation. But a majority of the other personalities identified as conservative. About 63% of those influencers are men, most of whom – including former comedian Joe Rogan – have had no experience with a media organization. 

Exit polls indicated that the male vote in November tilted strongly toward Republicans, complicating the media messaging of Democrats..

The shrinking of the state’s newspapers

Mark Maassen, executive director of the Missouri Press Association, said there are now 203 newspapers in Missouri, down from about 300 papers a decade ago. 

In its 2024 “State of Local News” report, Northwestern University’s Medill School of Journalism found that “the loss of local newspapers is continuing at an alarming pace, deepening the local news crisis and further depriving people of information they need to make informed decisions.”

That trend could be bad for the state’s Democratic candidates because some studies indicate that voters who regularly read newspapers tend to vote Democratic. 

Missouri reflects a wider trend, with the nation losing more than one-third of its newspapers in the last two decades.  “With 127 newspapers closing in the past 12 months — nearly two and a half per week — the U.S. has now seen a decline of 3,300 since 2005,” the Medill study found. 

A poll by the left-leaning Data for Progress suggested that Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris led among voters who said they paid attention to the news “a great deal” or “a lot,” while former President Donald Trump won by decisive margins among those who paid attention “a moderate amount,” or “a little.”  Trump won those who don’t pay attention at all by 51 to 32.

Rob Todaro, communications director at Data for Progress, told the GJR that the analysis “primarily focused on digital outlets that speak to news polarization.” He said the survey did not include newspapers, although “a significant percentage would likely select local newspapers.”

An NBC News poll (conducted in April, before President Joe Biden dropped out of the race) indicated that Biden was the choice of people who got their news from newspapers by 70 to 21 percent. Trump was winning among those who don’t follow political news by 53 to 27 percent.

The “silo” effect,  limiting exposure to opposing points of view

Russ Carnahan, the former U.S. Representative who now chairs the Missouri Democratic party, worries that voters are often trapped in separate news “silos,” making it difficult for candidates to break through with a different message,

That tendency complicates the campaigns of Democrats in Republican-leaning “red” states such as Missouri, where many voters get their news from Fox News, other conservative channels or right-leaning influencers.

The silo effect also makes it tougher to counter disinformation, which influences state voting patterns even if the issues are national. Some Missouri Democrats have toyed with the concept of a weekly or monthly online publication that would aim to counter such false claims at the state level. But such publications might have trouble penetrating voters in conservative news silos.

While he is open to various ways for Democrats to get out their message in such silos, Carnahan suggests that the most effective option would be to recruit like-minded opinion leaders in rural areas or small towns – such as local teachers discussing education, local docs on health care, local judges or lawyers on legal issues.

The waning power of editorial endorsements

The Democratic candidate for Missouri attorney general, Elad Gross, lost by about 19 points even though he was strongly endorsed by the state’s two biggest newspapers, which have lost readership and influence in recent years.

“I’m not sure what impact newspaper endorsements have these days,” Gross told the GJR. “More and more people are getting their information from other sources.”

Maassen of the Press Association said “many newspapers in Missouri are moving away from political endorsements,” although there are “a few locally owned newspapers where the publisher writes a weekly column.”

At the same time, many U.S. newspapers that used to be independent or family-owned now belong to large newspaper groups. Those owners, in many cases hedge funds or private equity groups, often tell editors to avoid making endorsements in presidential races.

The Post-Dispatch, owned by Iowa-based Lee Enterprises, endorsed Harris and mainly Democratic candidates for statewide office. But the McClatchy news group, now owned by Chatham Asset Management, told its 29 newspapers, including the Kansas City Star, to refrain from endorsing presidential candidates unless their editorial boards had interviewed both nominees. Even so, the Star endorsed mainly Democratic candidates in state races.  

Maassen said the corporate ownership trend is continuing in the state. Recently, Carpenter Media Group and CherryRoad Media acquired newspapers in Missouri, buying them from smaller media groups.

Nationally, Tribune Publishing and MediaNews Group, both owned by Alden Global Capital, said their more than 68 daily and 300 weekly papers would no longer endorse presidential candidates. And Gannett’s more than 200 daily papers – including the Springfield News-Leader and Gannett flagship USA Today – did not endorse presidential candidates this year, although the News-Leader did endorse state and local candidates.

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Illustration by Steve Edwards

The Spread of “News Deserts” 

In another indicator of how local news impacts elections, the Medill project reported that Trump won 91 percent of the vote in “news desert” counties, which lack a professional source of local news. The study found four such counties in Missouri and four in Southern Illinois.

The Medill study concluded that “local news deserts are spreading. A furious pace of mergers and acquisitions is underway, as many longtime newspaper owners bail, and regional chains capitalize on opportunities.”

While they are not quite news deserts, many counties – including some mainly rural ones in Missouri and Illinois – offer extremely limited sources of local news. The Medill study found that the number of counties with only one news source is now about 1,563.

“Taken together, those counties include nearly 55 million people with limited or no access to local news,” Medill concluded. “ More than half of the nation’s 3,143 counties have little to no local news.”

Robert Koenig is a former Washington correspondent for the Post-Dispatch. 

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