If anyone needed more evidence that Missouri no longer is a bellwether state, the aftermath of Congressman Todd Akin’s Aug. 19 remarks about “legitimate rape” and female bodies’ defenses against impregnation should end the discussion. Even when the media frenzy about his comments peaked a few days later, an Aug. 22 Rasmussen poll indicated 38 percent still supported his U.S. Senate candidacy.
As an avid consumer of Missouri political campaign coverage for 40 years, let me be among the first to declare that it has never been better than it was in 2010: more content, additional outlets, sophisticated analysis.
Labor Day marks the time to get more serious about predicting the outcome of the November national elections. Political scientists—including this one—have recently returned from the American Political Science Association Annual Meeting. In even-numbered years, there is invariably one or more sessions on projecting the outcome based on past trends and mid-to-late summer poll results.