Voter turnout, stakes are high in Michigan

By Noah Beaumont >>

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are making their last gambits in swing states like Michigan where youth voter registration is high. As in other battleground states, the election here could come down to young voter turnout. 

The presidential race is in a statistical tie heading into the last weeks of campaigning. Both campaigns are targeting young voters, particularly the undecided. 

The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement estimates that 40.8 million members of Generation Z will be eligible to vote in the Nov. 5 election, including 8.3 million newly eligible voters.

Because of this, both the Democratic and Republican candidates for presidents are campaigning hard in places like Michigan, where there are 15 electoral votes up for grabs. 

The state boasts favorable precedents for both candidates. Michigan’s winner has gone on to win the White House in ine of the last 12 presidential elections. It held a blue streak since 1992 which was broken by Trump in 2016 who won the state then.

Project FiveThirtyEight’s  poll average indicates Harris is maintaining only a small lead over Trump across Michigan at the time of publication.

Illustration by Mel Chinnock

The statistical tie could be broken by Gen Z, who are between the ages of 12 and 27, those born after Millennials and before Generation Alpha. 

Michigan had the highest youth voter turnout rate in the country in 2022 with 36.5% of eligible voters casting ballots. It currently has one of the highest youth voter registration rates in the U.S. 

At 27, Joz Mara, a student at Lansing Community College, is just at the edge of Gen Z. Mara said they’ve already made their decision about who they plan to vote for.

“No unsureness,” they said. “I like having rights. I have a uterus, I’m dating a non-cis person, I’m genderqueer.”

Mara’s concerns are not unfounded. The Trump Administration led to substantial allowances of  LGBTQ discrimination through various institutions. A 2020 study of the administration’s impact on the mental health of gender-nonconforming individuals led to greater fear for their personal well-being.

For many young voters, Trump’s efforts to diminish women’s healthcare and reproductive rights throughout his presidency has nullified him as a feasible candidate.

Jenna McIntire, 21, a criminology major, is voting Harris for “her interviews about abortion and women’s healthcare, and what Trump says about women and the same issues.”

In Carson City, Michigan, Doug Chuong, 27, a second-generation Vietnamese immigrant who works as an operations specialist for a freight brokerage, said he can’t see himself voting for Trump.

“Personally, I am an advocate for human rights and women’s rights,” Chuong said. 

He said he hears a lot of people who share his views about Trump.

“What I see a lot is people saying, ‘Try not to list a reason you’re voting for Kamala without listing Trump,’” Chuong said. “And, I mean, Trump is a pretty good reason. The guy has been dishonest, unreliable.”

For Michael Ricard, 20, a student at the University of Michigan-Flint, Trump’s policies are the reason Trump will get his vote. 

“The economy and policy factor into it,” Ricard said. “Another big thing is global relations, how they were then versus now—I think it’s been getting worse.”

Jason Kosnoski, a political science professor at University of Michigan-Flint, said students seem to be asking critical questions about economic policy and foreign policy. 

He also noted that students are becoming skeptical of the two-party system.

“Biden tried to do a good job with reducing student loan debt, but it wasn’t primary in his political agenda,” Kosnoski said. “You can have a politician with an agreeable policy, but it depends on how salient that is. Politicians are not focused on what students are focused on.”

Young voters have indeed been growing dissatisfied. A 2024 poll  from Harvard Political Review found that a majority of voters ages 18 to 27 are committed to voting yet increasingly disillusioned with politics, which could create challenges for young voter turnout. 

Lukas Warner, 22, a senior at the University of Michigan-Flint, said if he votes, he will choose Harris. But his lack of trust in the government may keep him away from the ballot box altogether. 

“I feel like it’s being run incompetently,” Warner said. “It makes me not want to be involved, which I know is a problem right now. I don’t feel there’s anyone that represents me.”

Noah Beaumont is a freelance writer from Flint, Michigan.

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